Results Tracker

Current Totals

Measure	Total
Actual trades placed	29
Actual winning trades	16
Actual losing trades	7
Actual scratch / no-loss trades	6
Win rate (excluding scratch)	69.6% (16/23)
Actual profit	+11.925 pts
Review-only winners	14
Correct no-trades	12
Pending games	0
Current real bank result	+11.925 pts

Game Results

Match	Status	Actual Trade / Review Trade	Entry Point	Result	Points / Outcome	Key Learning
Spain v Argentina	Actual Trade	O2.5 + Trade 5 2-1 / 1-2 score-shape	Pre-match, 1pt total split: 0.5pt O2.5 and 0.5pt 2-1 / 1-2	Managed exit	-0.70 pts	The pre-match value case was reasonable, but the live game quickly became a controlled final: low shots, low xG, and Argentina offered almost no early route. Good decision to get out and limit the damage rather than chase.
France v England	Actual Trade	Over 8.5 Goals	Late live entry after the game became completely open	Settled winner	+0.50 pts	Third-place game became the open/chaos profile expected. The correct-score set helped read the match shape, but the actual profit came from waiting until the late goal state justified O8.5. Good example of adapting live instead of forcing the original pre-match idea.
England 1-2 Argentina	Actual Trade	Trade 5 — 2-1 / 1-2 correct-score shape	Pre-match, 1pt total, later managed with some red taken out	England 1-2 Argentina	+3.00 pts	Very good framework trade. The first half looked poor and red management was sensible, but the original 2-1 / 1-2 score-shape was right and landed late. Good example of a correct pre-match read surviving a bad first half.
Norway 1-2 England	Actual Trade / Managed score-shape	2-1 / 1-2 score-shape	Pre-match / live-managed after poor first-half rhythm	Norway 1-2 England	Scratch	The score-shape was correct, but live management protected the bank when the early game state looked poor. Good example that a correct final-score read does not always mean holding full risk; scratch was disciplined.
Spain 2-1 Belgium	Actual Trade	Over 2.5 Goals	0.5pt at 1.80	Spain 2-1 Belgium	+0.40 pts	Good goals read. Belgium were too lively to make it a clean Spain-only win angle, so O2.5 was the better trade. 0.5pt was the right stake; 1pt was possible but more aggressive.
Argentina v Egypt	Final: Argentina 3-2 Egypt	Actual Trade	FH O1.5 0.5pt at 3.00 lost, then Argentina to qualify 0.5pt at 1.70 won	Small loss	-0.15pt	Egypt route was real. FH goal was aggressive; Argentina qualify was the cleaner recovery market
USMNT v Belgium	Final: USA 1-4 Belgium	Actual Trade	O2.5 leave-in-play order, 0.5pt at 1.90. BTTS order not matched	Won	+0.45pt	Clean trade: strong goals profile, better price discipline, no stacking. O2.5 was better than BTTS.
Portugal v Spain	Final: Portugal 0-1 Spain	Actual Trade	FH O0.5 lost, then late O0.5 recovery won	Scratch	0.00pt	One-team pressure game. First 0.5pt was okay, but full FH exposure was too aggressive without Portugal contributing.
Brazil v Norway	Final: Brazil 1-2 Norway	Actual Trade	Correct-score structure lost, then O0.5 recovery won	Scratch	0.00pt	Original correct-score was too exposed, but recovery saved the game. Norway route was stronger than expected.
Ivory Coast v Norway	Actual trade	O2.5 match goals	0.5pt @ 2.90 live, after pressure/game-state confirmed	Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway	+0.75pt	Strong live pressure and two-team route made O2.5 value at a big price. Good example of waiting for confirmation rather than forcing pre-match.
Germany v Paraguay	Germany v Paraguay	O2.5 match goals	0.5pt @ 1.84 at 1-1 around 68’	Germany 1-1 Paraguay	-0.50pt	Stats showed pressure but Germany lacked enough SOT/big-chance quality. O2.5 had price value, but the chance quality warning mattered.
Brazil v Japan	Actual trade	O2.5 match goals	1pt @ 2.54	Brazil 2-1 Japan	+1.54pt	Strong live pressure/score-shape was right. At 1-1, Brazil pressure made one-more-goal/O2.5 playable and the third goal landed.
Senegal v Iraq	Correct no-trade	No trade	No entry; Senegal prices too short after Iraq red card	Senegal 5-0 Iraq	0.00pt actual	Senegal route was right, but the available price around 1.10 was too short. Correct not to chase a bad risk/reward trade.
Norway v France	Actual trade	Full Trade 2 / France score-shape	Actual position placed; scratched after game moved against us	Norway 1-4 France	0.00pt scratch	Good risk management. The final score landed France, but the trade became uncomfortable live, so scratching protected the bank.
Paraguay v Australia	Correct avoid / no trade	No trade	No entry	Paraguay 0-0 Australia	0.00pt	Low-goal danger was real. Without strong live pressure, this was a game to avoid rather than force O1.5/O2.5.
Japan v Sweden	Backtest only	Review trade: one-more-goal / O1.5 after first-goal trigger	After the game opened / after first goal	Japan 1-1 Sweden	0.00pt Review only	Web goals profile was right for BTTS/one-more-goal, but O2.5 did not land. Safer line was better than forcing bigger overs.
Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Correct no-trade	No trade	No entry	Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast	0.00pt	Ivory Coast route was right, but BTTS and O2.5 were dangerous because Curaçao had limited route.
Ecuador v Germany	Actual trade	Trade 2 / score-shape	Pre-match / early score-shape position; risk reduced at 1-1 and protected at 2-1	Ecuador 2-1 Germany	+0.75pt	Correct to avoid short Germany-only view and play the 2-1 / 1-2 score-shape.
Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Correct no-trade	No trade	No entry	Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast	0.00pt	Strong favourite won, but 0-2 was a major danger. Correct to avoid BTTS and O2.5.
Ecuador v Germany	Actual trade	Trade 2 / score-shape	Pre-match / early score-shape position; risk reduced at 1-1 and protected at 2-1	Ecuador 2-1 Germany	+0.75pt	Correct to avoid short Germany-only view and play the 2-1 / 1-2 score-shape.
Czech Republic v Mexico	Backtest only	Review trade: Mexico to add / Mexico route	After Mexico pressure / first-goal confirmation	Czech Republic 0-3 Mexico	0.00pts Review Only	Mexico were the right side, but the trade needed live confirmation rather than blind pre-match overs.
South Africa v South Korea	Backtest only	Review trade: FH O0.5 lost; later South Africa goal route won	FH O0.5 around 35’; South Africa goal route around 55–60’	South Africa 1-0 South Korea	0.00pts Review Only	Low-goal warning was right. South Africa became the better live route once South Korea failed to dominate.
Switzerland 2-1 Canada	Actual Trade	FH goal trade, then 2H O1.5 / one-more-goal	FH goal trade before HT / 2H O1.5 taken at 1.40 after waiting from 1.35 at 49’ with Switzerland 1-0 up	❌ FH lost / ✅ 2H won	-0.30pts actual	Correct open-game read overall, but FH timing was early and lost. Good discipline waiting from 1.35 to 1.40 for the second-half one-more-goal trade, which landed at 57’.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar	Actual Trade	Trade O3.5 / one-more-goal	Around 68’ at 2-1, price 1.70, 0.5pt	✅ Actual Winner	+0.35pts actual	Correctly avoided forcing the short Bosnia win or chasing blindly at HT. Waited until the game had opened, Qatar had shown enough route, and one more goal was supported by the match state.
Panama 0-1 Croatia	Backtest / Review Only	No trade	Pre-match and live review	✅ Correct No-Trade	0.00pts Review Only	Croatia were the right favourite, but the game stayed too low-event. HT had only 3 total shots and 0 SOT, so avoiding O2.5, BTTS and chasing Croatia was correct.
Colombia 1-0 DR Congo	Backtest / Review Only	O0.5 FH / Colombia goal, then O0.5 FT / Colombia next goa	35’ at 0-0 after strong Colombia pressure / 65’ at 0-0 with sustained pressure	❌ FH lost / ✅ 2H won	Review only, estimated around -0.15pts	Colombia pressure was real, not sterile, but the FH timing window was too short. The cleaner trade was later when pressure had continued into the second half.
Scotland 0-3 Brazil	Backtest / Review Only	Brazil next goal / Brazil team goals	HT with Brazil 2-0 up	✅ Review Winners	Review only	Correct Brazil-only route. Avoiding BTTS and Scotland goal was right because Scotland had no strong scoring route. Favourite-specific goals were cleaner than general overs.
Morocco 4-2 Haiti	Haiti Backtest / Review Only	O1.5 FH, O2.5 FH, then one-more-goal / O4.5	/ O4.5 Around 35’ at 0-1 / around 40’ at 1-1 / 65–70’ at 2-2	✅ Review Winners	Review only	Haiti scoring first completely changed the match from Morocco-control into an open-after-goal game. Best value came after the game state confirmed openness.
Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan	Backtest / Review Only	O2.5 FH / one more FH goal	20’ at 2-0, 0.5pt limit at 2.25	✅ Review Winners	+0.625pts review only	Elite favourite route confirmed early. The best value was not short FT overs, but the immediate first-half phase line after Portugal went 2-0 up.
England 0-0 Ghana	Backtest / Review Only	No trade	25’, HT, 65’ and 75’ all failed quality gates	✅ Correct No-Trade	0.00pts actual	Perfect sterile-control example. England had possession, corners and shots, but too few SOT and not enough clear chance quality. No bet was the right decision.
Norway 3-2 Senegal	Review Trade	O2.5 at 50’ and O3.5 at 55’	50’ at 2-0 / 55’ at 2-1	✅ Review Winner	Review only (0.525 win)	Correctly avoided the sterile first-half spell, then entered once the game opened after goals at 43’ and 48’. O2.5 landed at 53’ and O3.5 landed at 58’. No actual-bank trade because kick-off was outside trading window.
France 3-0 Iraq	Correct No-Trade	No official trade	No entry	✅ Correct decision	0 pts	France control read was correct, but pre-match odds were too low across the main markets. Good discipline not to force short-priced France win/O1.5/O2.5. Best scope was live timing rather than pre-match value.
Argentina 2-0 Austria	Actual Trade	Over 1.5 Goals	0.5pt at 2.10 + 0.5pt at 2.40	✅ Won	+1.25 pts	Elite-efficiency favourite rule worked. Low shot volume correctly blocked O2.5/BTTS, but Argentina control and efficiency kept the 2-0 / one-more-goal shape alive. Waiting improved price and turned O1.5 into a strong 1pt winner
New Zealand 1-3 Egypt	Review Trade	O2.5 at 60’ + O3.5 around 75’	After Egypt response and game opened	✅ Review winners	Review Only	No pre-match bet and no Trade 1 were correct. First-half goal angle needed red-out discipline, but the second-half game state opened properly and created two strong review winners
Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde	Review / Learning Game	Early quiet-phase under + later under management review	Trade 1 early; under position before HT	⚖️ Mixed review	Review Only	Early quiet-phase trade was the cleanest framework angle and worked well. Main learning: when a favourite leads 1-0 after 35’ but continues to apply pressure, consider banking under profit before HT rather than carrying full exposure into late first-half swings
Belgium 0-0 Iran	Actual Trade	Over 1.5 Goals	Live second-half entry after Belgium pressure built	❌ Managed loss	-0.65 pts	Entry had logic from Belgium’s xG/SOT pressure, but the red card changed the setup. Correct decision was to stop adding and cash out/reduce loss rather than chase a broken trade
Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia	Review / Learning Game	No official trade	No entry	✅ Correct decision	0.00 pts	Spain dominated and won comfortably, but Saudi offered very little attacking route. Good discipline not to chase short-priced overs or BTTS once the game became one-sided
Tunisia 0-4 Japan	Correct No-Trade	No official trade	No entry	✅ Correct decision	Review Only	Japan dominated and scored four, but Tunisia offered almost no attacking route. Good framework discipline: one-sided control is not the same as a two-team trading game. Avoided chasing after the early goal
Netherlands 5-1 Sweden	Missed Game (back test)	O4.5 FT	20 mins	✅ Review Winner	Review Only	Waited past the early goal until the 20’ update confirmed the setup: 2-0, strong Netherlands SOT, Sweden still had a route. O4.5 was the right line, and holding was correct because Sweden stayed active.
Germany 2-1 Côte d’Ivoire	Actual Trade	O2.5	78 mins	✅ Won	1.00 pts	1-1 game state, Germany pressure, both teams contributing
Portugal 1-1 DR Congo	No Trade	No official trade	N/A	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Portugal dominated possession but never produced enough sustained chance quality. Correct to avoid forcing a trade.
England 4-2 Croatia	Actual Trade	Over 5.5 Goals	Live at 3-2	✅ Won	+0.80 pts	Patience paid off. Waited for the game to fully open before entering rather than forcing an early score-shape trade.
Canada 6-0 Qatar	Out-of-hours Review	Over 1.5 FH review angle	25′ at 1-0	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Excellent example of waiting for live confirmation instead of backing a short-priced favourite pre-match.
USA 2-0 Australia	No Trade	No official trade	N/A	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Australia never offered enough attacking contribution to justify a framework overs entry.
Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia	Out-of-hours Review	O2.5 / one-more-goal review angle	60′ at 1-1	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Equaliser opened the game exactly as the framework anticipated. Strong continuation angle after 1-1.
Ghana 1-0 Panama	Out-of-hours Review	No official trade	N/A	✅ Correct No Trade	Review only	Panama had possession but produced too little quality. Correct to avoid chasing a late goal.
Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina	No Trade	No official trade	N/A	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Final score flattered the overs angle. Red card and late collapse distorted the result.
Czech Republic 1-1 South Africa	Out-of-hours Review	Late O1.5 review angle	75′-80′	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Framework correctly ignored O2.5 and identified the late one-more-goal opportunity.
Austria 3-1 Jordan	Review Trade	O2.5 / one-more-goal review angle	70′-75′ at 1-1	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Jordan contributed enough to create a genuine two-team goals profile after the equaliser.
Argentina 3-0 Algeria	Observation Only	No official trade	Around 60′	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Algeria finished without a meaningful attacking route. Correct not to chase a one-sided game.
Iraq 1-4 Norway	Actual Trade	Another goal before HT	34′ at 0-1	✅ Won	+0.95 pts	Norway pressure, Haaland threat and Iraq response made another first-half goal highly playable.
Iraq 1-4 Norway	Actual Trade	Over 3.5 Goals	HT at 1-2	✅ Won	+0.75 pts	Open second-half game with both teams continuing to attack.
France 3-1 Senegal	Actual Trade	Over 1.5 Goals	77′ at 1-0	✅ Won	+0.425 pts	France pressure finally became genuine and Senegal still had enough threat to support another goal.
Spain 0-0 Cape Verde	Actual Trade	Over 0.5 First Half	41′ at 0-0	❌ Lost	-0.50 pts	Valid framework entry after live confirmation. Spain simply failed to convert. No second-half framework trade.
Belgium 1-1 Egypt	Actual Trade	2-1 / 3-1 score-shape structure	Pre-match / managed live	❌ Managed Loss	-0.30 pts	Good management limited losses after Belgium equalised but failed to find a winner.
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia	Observation Only	Second-half continuation review	HT / 55′	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Team news should have upgraded Sweden earlier. Excellent continuation profile after HT.
Côte d’Ivoire 1-0 Ecuador	Observation Only	No Trade	Outside trade window	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Match stayed exactly as expected. Correct to stay disciplined.
Netherlands 2-2 Japan	Actual Trade	2-1 / 1-2 score-shape structure	Pre-match / exited early	⚖️ Scratch	0.00 pts	Good read but exited too early. Led to the new score-shape hold rule.
Germany 7-1 Curaçao	Actual Trade	Over 2.5 Goals HT	32′ at 1-1	✅ Won	+0.80 pts	Germany pressure justified taking the better-value first-half line rather than short FT odds.
Australia 2-0 Turkey	Observation Only	Late O1.5 review angle	55′-65′	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Correct not to chase early. Framework angle only appeared once the game opened.
Haiti 0-1 Scotland	Observation Only	No Trade	Outside trade window	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Shot volume without quality did not justify a goals trade.
Brazil 1-1 Morocco	Actual Trade	2-1 / 1-2 score-shape structure	Pre-match / managed live	⚖️ Scratch	0.00 pts	Correct score-shape idea and disciplined management protected the bank.
Qatar 1-1 Switzerland	Actual Trade	Over 1.5 Goals	79′ at 0-1	✅ Won	+0.50 pts	Excellent patience. Waited for both value and pressure before entering.
Canada 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina	Actual Trade	Over 2.5 Goals	67′ at 0-1	✅ Greened	+0.85 pts	Entered only once Canada pressure became sustained and managed out after the equaliser.
USA 4-1 Paraguay	No Trade	No Trade	—	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Game developed too quickly and never produced a clean value entry.
South Korea 2-1 Czech Republic	Review Trade	Late one-more-goal angle	Around 70′-75′	✅ Review Winner	Review only	Best signal came once the game reached 1-1.
Mexico 2-0 South Africa	No Trade	No Trade	—	✅ Correct No Trade	0.00 pts	Early goal and red-card disruption prevented a clean framework trade.

Running Actual Profit

No.	Match	Result	P/L	Running Total
1	Canada v Bosnia	✅	+0.85	+0.85
2	Qatar v Switzerland	✅	+0.50	+1.35
3	Brazil v Morocco	⚖️	0.00	+1.35
4	Germany v Curaçao	✅	+0.80	+2.15
5	Netherlands v Japan	⚖️	0.00	+2.15
6	Belgium v Egypt	❌	-0.30	+1.85
7	Spain v Cape Verde	❌	-0.50	+1.35
8	France v Senegal	✅	+0.425	+1.775
9	Iraq v Norway — O3.5	✅	+0.75	+2.525
10	Iraq v Norway — FH	✅	+0.95	+3.475
11	England v Croatia	✅	+0.80	+4.275
12	Germany v Côte d’Ivoire	✅	+1.00	+5.275
13	Belgium v Iran	❌	-0.65	+4.625
14	Argentina v Austria	✅	+1.25	+5.875
15	Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar	✅	+0.35	+6.225
16	Switzerland v Canada	❌	-0.30	+5.925
17	Ecuador v Germany	✅	+0.75	+6.675
18	Norway v France	⚖️	0.00	+6.675
19	Brazil v Japan	✅	+1.54	+8.215
20	Germany v Paraguay	❌	-0.50	+7.715
21	Ivory Coast v Norway	✅	+0.75	+8.465
22	Brazil v Norway	⚖️	0.00	+8.465
23	Portugal v Spain	⚖️	0.00	+8.465
24	USMNT v Belgium	✅	+0.45	+8.915
25	Argentina v Egypt	❌	-0.15	+8.765
26	Spain v Belgium	✅	+0.40	+9.165
27	Norway v England	⚖️	0.00	+9.165
28	England v Argentina	✅	+3.00	+12.165
29	France v England	✅	+0.50	+12.665
30	Spain v Argentina	❌	-0.70	+11.965

Notes

The tracker only counts real placed trades in the actual profit total.

Review-only games are logged separately because they help test the framework, but they do not affect the bank.

Pre Tournament Winner Bets

Below are the pre tournament bets I made along with latest odds

Rank	Date	Team	Pre-tournament bet odds	13/06/2026	Points	Main reason
1	13 Jun 2026	England	8.8	9.4	1.50 pts	Best overall trading profile: good route, huge liquidity, media hype, and likely shortening if they start well
2	13 Jun 2026	Portugal	10.0	9.6	1.25 pts	Strong upside contender; could shorten quickly if they win the group or beat Colombia
3	13 Jun 2026	France	6.4	5.7	1.00 pt	Best actual winner profile; safer to leave running, but less explosive as a trade
4	13 Jun 2026	Argentina	11.0	12.0	0.65 pts	Good trade/hold hybrid; strong tournament mentality and suited to warm conditions
5	13 Jun 2026	Netherlands	23.0	21.0	0.40 pts	Best bigger-price trade; could move well if they top the group, but group is awkward
6	13 Jun 2026	Morocco	70.0	65.0	0.20 pts	Tiny fun outsider; heat-suited and price could crash if they get a result against Brazil